www.reuters.com
痛点为 AI 基于上游原始证据的初步提炼；未包含额外中国市场检索。
用户的核心担忧是预测市场（如Polymarket）可能激励现实世界中的恶意行为，例如通过操纵事件或甚至谋杀来赢得赌注。评论中有人明确指出“这些平台应该在全球范围内被禁止，因为它们激励有权势的人以破坏性的方式操纵现实世界以赢得赌注”，并担心“有人会因此被谋杀”。这表明用户认为现有监管框架无法有效遏制这种风险，导致社会信任受损、公共安全受到威胁。用户还观察到这些平台向普通人投放广告，认为其正常化会进一步加剧危害。这种对道德滑坡和实际暴力的恐惧，构成了强烈的心理负担和监管诉求。
These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.
When I see people making money on Iran attacks, and murder of heads of state - it shows clearly something is deeply wrong with Polymarket. Its a level worse than Vegas or Indian casinos. A literal ticket to hell. I'm all for banning these evil sites.
Good. Just naming things differently does not work in other countries. If it quacks like a duck, swims like a duck, and looks like a duck, then it probably is a duck.
I don't usually see advertisements, but I was in a position recently to see a real-life television stream, and I was quite surprised to see them run an advertisement for Kalshi. I was pretty surprised that something like this would be advertised to normal people. I'd half expect the next ad to be for a hitman, or for beating your wife, or something. Seems crazy that this is tolerated whatsoever.
People wonder how bad prediction markets are going to get. I think it's going to get a lot worse. If left unchecked it'll en up like the 1997 paper "Assassination politics" describes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Bell#%22Assassination_Poli...
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"text": "These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the <i>real world</i> in horribly destructive ways to win a bet.<p>I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.",
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"text": "When I see people making money on Iran attacks, and murder of heads of state - it shows clearly something is deeply wrong with Polymarket. Its a level worse than Vegas or Indian casinos. A literal ticket to hell. I'm all for banning these evil sites.",
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"text": "Good.<p>Just naming things differently does not work in other countries.<p>If it quacks like a duck, swims like a duck, and looks like a duck, then it probably is a duck.",
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